Dallas Real Estate Market Continues Its Rise! Find out the Biggest Winners and Losers in Dallas Texas.

What's up, everyone? Welcome back to the Living in Dallas channel for our monthly recap that we do around here. Today, we are diving into the results of April of 2023 in the Dallas Housing Market.

Dallas Housing Market April 2023 Recap

So, you may remember if you have been around here for a while that in previous videos about the Dallas metro area, we discussed the spring market cycle in real estate here.

Now, the spring market cycle in the Dallas metro area typically refers to the time period between February and June when our real estate activity increases. During this time period, the trends tend to be a little bit higher in the number of homes listed for sale, and the demand from the buyers also starts to increase. Now, in the spring here in Texas, the weather is generally mild, and the days are a little bit longer, making it a much more favorable time for people to start shopping for homes and getting ready for the summertime.

Additionally, there are a lot of families who prefer to move during the summer months because schools are not in session, and they can start to settle into their new homes and be prepared for the upcoming school year in the fall. So, during our spring market cycle, the competition among buyers can be intense, and oh my heavens, right now it is going bonkers, which has started to lead to multiple offers for a lot of these desirable properties that are out there. It's not uncommon for homes to sell quickly, like over the weekend or even within a day or two, for above asking price during this time period.

So, when we're looking at how it's been going so far here in the DFW area, the market has been a little bit softer in terms of the appreciation levels, as we see here in my 10-year market history. Now, February to March showed about a 1.9% increase in the median sales prices and noting that the range for the pre-pandemic crazy buying time that we had, we see that was typically about a 1.5% to a 6.3% increase. So, it wasn't necessarily the worst, but still at the lower end of the spectrum.

That also goes for the period that's measured from January to March, and that showed a 4.3% increase for this year of 2023 alone. The average over the past eight non-covid years was 8.2%, and it ranged from 4.3% (this year being at its lowest) and then it did go up to about 10.5%. Finally, from this past March and April, this year was at 1.9%, which, if you're looking historically, was about average. The first part of the year has been relatively slow historically. Which as you would expect, it's normal with the first housing market correction in almost a decade.

Now, if we look back at some of the other numbers, we see some other interesting facts taking place. If you look at the closed sales over the past 10 years, this April was the first time that closed sales declined.

But if we're looking at the showings, shows pending are declining and is down to 12 showings before a home is going pending.

Also, the median percent of original list price has also shot up since the new year and is back to 98.1%, which, other than the two crazy years we had, is almost back to normal.

Another big measurement to see how strong the buyers are coming out is the days on the Market which has also dropped by 18 days since the spring buying season kicked in.

One other side note here, if you look at new listings, we see that those are down to the lowest point since April of 2016. Now, the reason I have been painting this little pretty picture for you is so that you kind of get an understanding of what I have been seeing on the ground while I've been working with my clients. It has been super tight and many of the homes are back to having multiple offers like I said, and if it's in a decent area and in good condition, or even mostly good condition, I would say, and the Agents have actually priced the home right, these homes are going above asking. As the supply is lower than it typically would be, as we just showed you, that is why the closed transactions are down as well as the number of new listings on the market. Of course, that's not all the properties and all of the cities as I will get into here for the April Market recap that we're doing, but overall, the housing market correction has definitely at least taken a bit of a breather.

All right, so time to see how the Dallas Metro did for the month of April. So, the median sales price for April was up to just around three hundred and eighty thousand dollars in the entire MLS for single-family detached homes as a spring cycle has some momentum that is still going on for now, but sales are down now year over year by 3.8 percent from April of 2022 and are still down 7.2 percent from the highs in 2022, but that is well off of the bottom that we were having in January. We just talked about days on the market and a couple of other metrics that indicate that things are tight around here.

That last metric is monthly supply, which was up slightly to 2.5 months for April.

Building Permits are Down Big in DFW

Now, the permits for new private housing units in DFW in March 2023, you are going to be shocked, dropped big time and will continue to limit the supply in the coming years and drive up the prices here in the DFW area.

Employment in Dallas Fort Worth Texas

Let's talk about employment a little bit while looking at some of the macro numbers that can affect the housing market. Unemployment remains low and was at 3.5% in March and unchanged from February, according to the Dallas Fed. The Dallas Fed also predicts that employment in Texas will increase by 2.4% in 2023. So, if people can pay the bills and they have jobs, then we will not see a flood of inventory hit the market and drive our prices back down. What we are seeing is that sellers are being less likely to sell right now with a forecast for a mild recession this year and having locked in such low rates in the previous years when the interest rates were so low. Thus, this is why the new listings are at their lowest since 2016.

Consumer Default Rates

Now, the consumer default rates did tick up ever so slightly from the previous month in all but in the auto loan category and we have inflation.

Inflation

The Consumer Price Index, which is the baseline for gauging inflation, is now at its lowest point since its high in June of 2022 and is now down to five percent. However, the shelter continues to rise.

Mortgage Rates

If you're interested in mortgage rates, you might want to know that rates for mortgages are hovering around 6.4% for a 30-year conventional loan. VA loans are around 6.06%, and FHA loans are around 6.07%. As of today, that's down about a quarter of a point since May 1st.

Looking at the macro indicators, there's not much incentive for housing prices to decline anytime soon. The FED is now backing off a bit since inflation has been dropping, and with indicators in the economy starting to indicate a slowing, they're likely going to quit raising rates with maybe another quarter of a point in the cards.

In the DFW area, we will likely continue to see home prices rise through the months of May and June if there are no economic or geopolitical events that happen. The recipe is there for continued buyer demand and a low supply.

Biggest Winner and Losers in April 2023 in Dallas Housing Market

Each month, we like to share the top 10 winners and losers from March to April. We will also show you the top five year-to-date winners and losers in the Dallas metro area in 2023 so far. My team and I dive into the entire Metroplex City by City to share this data with you.

I exclude any city that did not have at least 30 closed transactions in April mainly to avoid those wide swings in the prices that are out there. I also like to use the median sales price to limit those extremes that we have going on in some of these cities.

Let's get on with it and start with the biggest losers for the month of April. 

Top 10 Cities - Largest Median Price Drops in April 2023

Southlake Texas

Now, number 10 was Southlake, Texas. I know it is hard to really call Southlake a loser in terms of real estate, but it did decline 1% percent from the previous month when much of the rest of the market was appreciating in April and is now down 3.8% year-to-date.

Celina Texas

Number nine was the city of Celina, which was down 1.4% from the previous month, and it has had a rough couple of months and is down 6.4% year-to-date.

Garland Texas

Now, number eight is Garland, Texas, which was down about two percent from the previous month, but since January it is still up 12% so it must have just been having a little bit of an off month, I guess you could say.

Melissa Texas

Number seven on the list though is one of the sister cities up north and close to Celina, which is the city of Melissa, Texas. Melissa was down 2.4% from the previous month and is down about -0.4% for the entire year so far.

Mansfield Texas

Number six is the City of Mansfield, which was down about 3.7% from March and is also down 6.7% year-to-date.

Grand Prairie Texas

Number five on the list was Grand Prairie, Texas, which came in down at about 4.1% from the March numbers. However, as you can see from the chart, it was just a bit of a retrace from a very strong February.

Frisco Texas

On to number four, and that is the city that everybody talks about, which is Frisco, Texas. This city dropped 4.1% as well; however, it is still up 5.5% for the year to date.

Wylie Texas

Number three is the city of Wylie, Texas, which dropped 5.3% from last March and is now down 5.5% year-to-date.

Lewisville Texas

Number two on our list was a big winner last month, and that was Lewisville, Texas. It was down 7.2% from its meteoric rise last month, so it did need to come back up just a little bit, but year-to-date this city is up 17.6%, so it's having a pretty good year so far, as you can tell.

North Richland Hills Texas

Finally, our Biggest Loser for the month of April is the city of North Richland Hills. Now, North Richland Hills was down 14.9% from the March numbers, and this was really like Lewisville, where it had a huge February, then it gave some of it back, but even with that drop, it's still up 9.3% year-to-date. 

Top 10 Cities - Largest Median Price Increases in April 2023

Now let's move on to a little bit more of a positive spin of things and discuss the biggest winners for the month of April.

Little Elm Texas

Number 10 is the city of Little Elm, Texas, which was up 6% from March and is having a pretty great year as well, as it's up 14.6% for the year to date.

Mesquite Texas

Number nine is the City of Mesquite, Texas, which was up 7.4% and for the year is up 8.4%.

Fate Texas

Number eight is the city of Fate, Texas, out in Rockwall County, just passed Rockwall, as a matter of fact, and was up 8.1% in April and for the year is up 3.9%.

Keller Texas

Number seven on the list is a city that has had a really great year so far, and that is the city of Keller, Texas. We've done a few different videos on Keller so far, and if this is something that you're interested in, be sure to check one of those out. Keller was up 8.3% from the previous month and is up a huge 32.1% for the year to date. I personally think that this area is getting a little bit of a boost for being somewhat of an alternative to South Lake just in terms of its location, of course, that is my opinion.

Anna Texas

Number six on the list is the city of Anna, Texas. If you're not familiar with it, Anna is located up North near the city of Melissa and fairly close to the city of Celina and McKinney. So, it looks like it was bucking the trend a little bit, and Anna was up 8.6% in April and is up 12.7% for the year to date.

Grapevine Texas

Number five on the list is going to be Grapevine, Texas, which is a unique area. We did some videos on this one as well. If you are interested, Grapevine was up 10.7% in April and is now up 14.7% for the year.

Cedar Hills Texas

For number four, we're going to give you Cedar Hill Texas, which is a smaller city down south in Dallas County and was up 13.5% for April and is now up an amazing 27.3% for the year to date.

Bedford Texas

Number three is going to be the City of Bedford, Texas, which is part of the HEB if you've ever heard someone refer to that, not the grocery store, and Bedford was up 14.9% in April and is now up 9.3% for the year.

Allen Texas

On to number two on the list, which was Allen, Texas. We also just did a deep dive video on Allen if you want to learn more about that. Allen was up 15.7% in April, and year-to-date is up 13.5%.

Haslet Texas

And the biggest winner for the month of April is one of the underdogs out there, as it has been repeatedly beat up over the past few months, and that is the city of Haslet, Texas, which came out swinging in the month of April and posted a 17.3% jump from March. The good news is that it almost got the city back to the break-even point, but it's still down 1.2% year to date. 

Year to Date Biggest Losers in Dallas Texas

Now for the Year to Date numbers,  we have already discussed them in The Biggest Loser section, but there was one that was not included in the monthly top 10,  which was Sanger, Texas. Sanger is up north past the City of Denton, which happens to be down 5.8% for the year. So, that is the list of the biggest loser users for the year to date so far in the Dallas metro area.

Year to Date Biggest Winners in Dallas Texas

We also mentioned that most of the year-to-date's biggest winners were in the winter section previously as well. However, there was one that was left out, and that is Aubrey, Texas, up near Denton in the north part of the Metro here. Aubrey was up 19.2% year-to-date, coming in at number four.

Again, here's the list for you to look at in order of the winners and the losers. 

Hopefully, this was something that was very helpful for you and that you kind of enjoyed seeing how the DFW metroplex is doing overall. Make sure that you do check in each month as we try to break down for you and help give you an idea of the latest things that are going on with the Dallas housing market trends. if you have any interest at all in learning more about moving here to Dallas, Texas, or one of the suburbs in the vicinity, make sure to reach out because we love helping.